Geomagnetic Storm Forecasting Advances for the Electric Power Industry


Abstract:


Space Weather and geomagnetic storms resulting from solar activity is an emerging environmental concern because of the impacts that various facets of space weather may have upon technology systems, such as satellites, communications, and electric power. Geomagnetic disturbances may impact the operational reliability of electric power systems. Solar Cycle 22 (1986-1996) demonstrated to the power industry the need to take into consideration the potential impacts of geomagnetic storms. Important infrastructure advances have recently been put in place that provide solar wind data. This new data source along with numeric model advances allows, for the first-time, the capability for predictive forecasts of severe storm conditions. Most space weather forecast services only provide for prediction or specification of the near-earth environment. Operators of critical infrastructures, such as electric power grids, need to know the impact of threatening space weather conditions on system operations. New advances have been made and validated which achieve the ability to model both environment and critical infrastructures in detail in order to provide comprehensive impact assessments of geomagnetic storm conditions on critical infrastructures. The first of these advanced forecast systems has been developed by Metatech and is now operational at National Grid Company, the utility that provides service to England and Wales. National Grid is the largest electric transmission operating company in the world and is providing the vital proving ground for this advance in Space Weather forecasting for the electric power industry.